Race to October: The Red Sox Final Stretch

By Sean Bailey
Contributor

            It is that time of year again. It is time for the boys of summer to see which team can emerge from the fracas as champion. My advice? Get a 12 pack of Sam Adams Octoberfest or Shipyard Pumpkinhead(preferably purchase it in NH, booze is cheaper than dirt), and flip on NESN to catch the Red Sox, as they gear up for the final stretch.

The Pennant race is heating up, and the Red Sox have put themselves in a position to capture the AL East crown, and have a shot of claiming home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is critical for the Sox. They lack a true ace to go out and win a tough game in October, so the Wild Card seems like a too early playoff exit waiting to happen.

Normally I would not get caught up in that race, but this year is different. The Sox should want home field, and want it bad. Fenway is the ultimate home field for Boston’s boys. The Monster is perfectly catered to the swings of Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, even David Ortiz. They all slam wall balls off that short porch in left. The Sox bat .284 at home and .263 on the road.

The pitching has been tremendous. Jon Lester looks like a true ace once again, even though he sustained a tough loss in the last game of the Yankees series. John Lackey has been great, just could someone score the guy a run? I almost feel bad for him, but I’m still too bitter about 2011 to ever sympathize with that scumbag. Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster have been inconsistent, but with Clay Bucholz finally to return from the mysterious sore neck the Sox look primed for a big run.

However, the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury is huge. The guy leads the league and steals and has batted around .300 all year. Not to mention the range he has in center, it seems like he always reads the ball perfectly off the bat. He never makes a false step and covers so much ground, nearly eliminating any bloop hits into center (a pitcher’s nightmare). Though the Sox have depth, his loss in the playoffs may loom large.

But all that aside it is time to embrace the Sox again. The Pats looked extremely shaky in their debut, and the Sox just took three out of four against the resurgent Yankees. No matter how depleted the Yanks are, it is always great spanking the Spankees further down in the division cellar.

The Sox got huge rivalry games this week with the Rays and the Yanks. The Rays have been struggling of late, so its important the Sox storm into Tropicana and squeeze the life out of the Rays while they can. And it is always fun whopping on the Spankees. If Boston can post an above .500 for the rest of this week, we will be watching a lot of playoff games in October at Fenway.

2013 New England Patriots Preview: The Keys to Lombardi: What the Patriots can do to achieve their ultimate goal

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

More often than not, a surprise team makes an unprecedented run to the Super Bowl and wins it all. The 2012-13 Baltimore Ravens, 2008-09 New York Giants, and (hey!) the 2002-03 New England Patriots come to mind as teams that defied the odds. Clichés (one that I have admittedly used before) are brought up with these teams – heart, grittiness, and a solid defense. Regardless of what you believe, there is one universally known fact that directly relates to post season success: a world class quarterback. Since 2000, only two teams have won without what I consider a top 5 quarterback (‘01 Ravens – Kyle Boller and ’03 Buccaneers – Brad Johnson. The jury is still out on Joe Flacco). Well, as you all know we have a world class quarterback who has been with our team since that Cinderella season of the ’01-’02 season. Just having a quarterback of that caliber gives us a pretty good chance of winning it all, because as long as he is healthy Tom Brady will punch our ticket into the playoffs. And once we are there…we’ve witnessed firsthand the pros and cons of the magic that is the NFL postseason.

Moving from blatantly obvious to…just as blatantly obvious is this: injury, or lack thereof, is also critical for obvious reasons. However, injuries in sports are unavoidable so it comes to two things: hopefully Lady Luck spares you an elite player; and when the injury happens, how does the team react? Luckily, the Patriots are incredibly good of finding stopgap players out of the woodwork that are capable of stepping into a situation and performing at a high level.

So right there in the introduction is the first couple Keys to Lombardi: a top tier playcaller and avoiding that pesky injury bug. After that, the keys tend to fluctuate depending on the team. So here we go for the New England Patriots:

Get off to a good start. The Patriots’ first four games are against the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Atlanta Falcons. Those teams (excluding the Jets who were 10th) finished in the bottom half of the league for DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in 2012. You don’t need to know all that mumbo jumbo, but you should know that that bodes well for the Pats, who can use some cupcake defenses early in the season to get acquainted with all the new faces on the offense.

Establish the running game. Last year, the Patriots had their first legit running game since the 2004-05 season with Corey Dillon when he rushed for 1,635 yards. I brought up in another piece how Stevan Ridley & co picked up some serious yardage against some below average defenses, but regardless, their committal to the running game last year was a promising sight and it’s critical they hit the ground running (AWFUL pun, I’m over it) so we won’t be so heavily relying on Brady as he grows older.

D-line generates a consistent pass rush. I’m not looking for them to put up stats such as sacks, TFLs, etc., I just want the defensive line and Brandon Spikes (let’s not consider him a blitzer because he should always be rushing the quarterback) to apply steady pressure on the quarterbacks they face and force them to check down to their running backs and maybe make decisions they don’t want to. Vince Wilfork and the oft mentioned on this site Chandler Jones should figure to lead the pack in backfield penetration. Also and more importantly, it would be a huge help to the secondary if they don’t have to work as hard covering receivers and worry about quarterbacks exploiting them as often if they are feeling rushed.

Linebackers improve in pass coverage. The formula to beat the Patriots is to get to Tom Brady early and often and focus your passing offense up the middle of the field. The linebackers of New England are pretty good, but few are exceptionally skilled at coverage. Dane Fletcher should look to contribute in that department, and young upstart Steve Beauharnais assuming he makes the team. If this team can adequately cover talented tight ends and defend running backs out of the backfield, they would be a finely tuned, well rounded defense.

Get gritty. Touched on in a previous piece, fans shouldn’t expect for the Pats to win their trademark 35-21 games of years past; at least in the beginning of the season. Although blowing out teams are nice, I always felt bittersweet because the regular season to New England should be a warm up for the playoffs. If they’re blowing teams out of the water, that doesn’t prepare you for the postseason where games are (typically) closer and harder fought. So if this team can get in some “bar fights” to take a page out of Kevin Garnett's bottomless book of quotes, it could ultimately be a positive in the long run even if it means them losing a couple.

Enter the playoffs on a roll. Quick problem I have that is related to this – people need to stop overreacting to Rob Gronkowski’s injury status, assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks. He can come back in Week 12 for all I care, the Patriots are a good enough team to not collapse like a house of cards without having their best playmaker besides Tommy Football. If Gronk can play with Brady for a couple weeks before the playoffs, combined with a soft last four games of the schedule (Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Ravens, Buffalo Bills); that could build some serious momentum going into the postseason.

So there you have it. The Patriots have the main ingredient for success in their quarterback, so think of these only as complimentary pieces to make the whole meal (wow, first the awful pun and then the awful analogy). Regardless of questionable literary devices used, I think I generated some fairly easy things for New England to improve on this season. Just because they seem easy, definitely do not underestimate how critical these are. If this team can step up and execute these pointers, we will be able to follow this team all the way until they lift the Lombardi trophy in New York at the end of the season.

Moving On From the Welker Era

By Scott Morrison
Contributor

There will be no flying Elvis on Wes Welker’s helmet this season, and he won’t be catching passes from his buddy Tom Brady. Naturally people were upset when one of the most popular athletes in New England for the last decade departed this past offseason for Denver. The Patriots are notorious for going to battle with players over contracts, so did anyone not see this coming? Belichick has NEVER been afraid to make the unpopular and shrewd business move. He is simply doing what he feels is in the best interest of his football team. Belichick himself will be the first to say that he is not easy to play for, but anyone who thinks Welker leaving town wasn’t strictly business is misinformed. Just look at recent contract situations of the past ten years. Deion Branch anyone? Richard Seymour? Adam Vinatieri? Logan Mankins? The list goes on and on. Bill has never strayed from his philosophy and never will. There is no player greater than the interests of the team as a whole, and is a chief reason why the Patriots have been the most successful franchise in all of professional sports the last decade.  Welker over played his hand and didn’t realize what the market for an aging slot receiver (32) is in the NFL these days. You can blame his agents, you can blame the Patriots, you can blame Wes himself; bottom-line the Patriots knew the market and weren’t going to make an exception because they never have, and never will. Fans get so emotionally invested in players and forget that the NFL is not a what have you done for me in the past league but what have you done for me lately and what can you do for me in the future. You don’t pay someone on their prior accomplishments; if you start doing that you will end up like the Oakland Raiders or Washington Redskins, two teams perpetually in said “cap-jail”. The Patriots mastery of the salary cap is what lets them compete for a Super Bowl year in and year out. If the Patriots had gotten emotionally involved in negotiations with Welker they would’ve made the same mistake as a team they share a state and fan base with. The Red Sox dug themselves a great hole over the years consistently re-signing players on past merits and accomplishments (i.e. Mike Lowell) The best way to stay relevant in today’s NFL and professional sports in general is to consistently adapt and change. From a purely football perspective you could make the argument that after 6 years the Patriots had to take away Brady’s security blanket. The offense had become too predictable. It’s one thing to target a receiver of Calvin Johnson’s size and ability 174 times, but Welker? That’s insanity and it had become the norm here in New England. He was Tom Brady’s binky; the Patriots have always been at their best when throwing to the open receiver or in football terms the best matchup. Anyone who thinks Welker was the best matchup 174 times doesn’t understand the X’s & O’s like they should. It’s great to have a security blanket like Welker over the middle, but he should never be the number 1 option. Not trying to take anything away from Welker because he was the ultimate warrior, but he simply isn’t irreplaceable. Over the last 6 seasons the Patriots have been a finesse offense, meaning they pass to set up the run. They have never had a dominant rushing attack; even last season’s stats were completely misleading. They may have lead the league in rushing attempts, but how many of those were them just rushing up to the line and hoping they were going to catch the other team’s sub-defense out of position? Their ability to gain large chunks was mainly other teams consistently putting extra defensive backs on the field to defend their lethal passing attack. Other teams almost exclusively played the Patriots in a sub-defense in that it was the only way to match up with Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Welker. When the Patriots really needed to run the ball to close out a game or get that tough yard they struggled mightily, especially without the blocking prowess of Gronkowski late in the season. As the season wore on due to injuries, and simply facing better opponents it became “where’s Welker?” When it came to playing the Ravens, a vast superior opponent to the ones they beat up on the ground in many a blowout, the Patriots fizzled. The offensive line has been built to mimic NFL trends in that they have big, long athletic tackles, and a stable interior that’s great in pass protection. The only lineman you could make an argument for being a great run blocker is Mankins, and he has been a shell of himself with various injuries over the past few seasons. Don’t get me wrong, they are one of the best units in the league, but by no means a superior run blocking group. So with contract battles, injuries, tragedies, and the ever changing NFL; what can we really expect from the Patriots offense this season? Well you can expect them to change on the fly and evolve with the players they have. Welker isn’t walking through that door, neither is Hernandez. It will be a while before Gronkowski is anywhere near the shape he needs to be in. So you take Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and adapt. The ground game looks to build on last season’s improvement with a healthy stable of young and exciting backs. Ridley looks to take that next step, while Vereen brings far more to the table than Woodhead ever did. The comparisons of Welker and Amendola are fair and unfair. You can compare age, injury history, and familiarity within the system but in the end remember it was business. Brady is going to love Amendola who has more size and speed than Welker. Everyone can point to his injury history, but in my experience almost everything boils down to injuries and how you manage them.  This offense doesn’t contain the same stars of the past, but could be every bit as explosive and far more versatile. With Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Brady at the helm, I’m still far more concerned with the defensive side of the ball. Expect struggles out of the gate with this young group, but the evolution of the offense will continue and look for continued success without those household names you have grown so accustomed to.

2013 New England Patriots Preview: Know Thy Enemy - Breaking down the division opponents

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

The AFC East during the New England Patriots’ stretch of dominance has been somewhat of a joke, save for the New York Jets when they had one or two competent seasons and gave the Pats some trouble a couple years ago. Apart from some random games, New England almost always asserts their dominance against the teams in the division, propelling us to punch our tickets to the playoffs almost always earlier than any other teams in the league. However, this does give us an excuse to not regard them as competitors, and since we will be seeing the following three teams twice on the gridiron this season, let’s quickly break down each team so we can know what we are dealing with at the start of the season.

BUFFALO BILLS (2012: 6-10, 4^th place)

The Bills and Miami Dolphins are in a similar situation. First, obviously quarterback play more than any other position has the most influence in how a team does, and it’s the reason it’s tough to get a read on this team because they most likely will be starting a rookie under center in Week 1 (against the Patriots). Then again, if the Bills decide to start Kevin Kolb, this team is much easier to figure out: they’re going to suck.

For the other weapons on the offense, there are some people you should keep your eye on. The obvious one is CJ Spiller, who is an extremely dangerous running back now that the Bills are using him correctly. They also have Stevie Johnson, a perfectly serviceable number one wideout. And finally Scott Chandler; who isn’t an impressive tight end but seems to show up when he plays the Patriots, so he warrants at least a mention. However, if the Bills don’t have anyone to get these people the ball, then we needn’t worry people.

On the other side of the ball, this team is a little more miserable. Mario Williams, who signed the most lucrative contract ever for a defensive player, was an albatross for them last year in his first season with the team. Apparently, he was battling wrist issues all season so hopefully he doesn’t return to his normal havoc wreaking form that made the Bills want to sign him in the first place. After that, there’s really no one else that needs to be mentioned on their defense (besides Stephon Gilmore who had a nice rookie campaign at cornerback), so let’s go to the next team.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2012: 7-9, 2^nd place)

Like previously stated, the Miami Dolphins are in the same boat as the Bills: they have a young and unproven quarterback. Their offense lost two key players and only gained one. The losses were offensive lineman Jake Long and running back Reggie Bush, the former being a top tier pass protector and the latter being a dual threat playmaker. Their one addition was wideout Mike Wallace, a serious deep threat that compliments Brian Hartline, the Dolphins other dangerous wide receiver. Although I think Wallace is brutally overrated, he still needs to be accounted for when he is on the field.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins are even less impressive. The Brent Grimes signing was nice, he is a nice addition to their secondary. However, they let go of Sean Smith at cornerback so it is a wash. Also, their Dannell Ellerbe signing was good, albeit at a pretty hefty price. Baltimore Ravens defensive products that sign are pretty hit or miss, as the ghost of Adalius Thomas still haunts me and a huge number of Patriots fans to this day. The only other noteworthy defender on this team is Cameron Wake, a huge destructive force on the defensive line sure to give New England’s offensive line trouble in years to come.

NEW YORK JETS (2012: 6-10, 3^rd place)

Finally, last and definitely least. I’ll spare you the corny Jets jokes, because those have certainly been beat into the ground. The Jets quarterback situation is a mess, to put it mildly. They have two below average quarterback fighting to be the main signal caller, only to be rewarded with dreadful offensive weapons. Mark Sanchez’s favorite security blanket, Dustin Keller, went to the Dolphins but unfortunately tore his ACL this past Saturday and is out for the season. Santonio Holmes at this point of his career is at best a second or third wide receiver, but is the team’s number one receiver. The running backs aren’t anything to write home about either.

The once elite and stingy defense the Jets had in the recent years has turned into an old, slow defense that’s spotted with bad contracts. Darrelle Revis is gone, and whether or not you agree with the specifics of the trade, it’s nice the Patriots don’t have to play him twice a year (though they do play him in Week 3). Besides Antonto Cromartie who is a very respectable cornerback, the only other player on this defense you should be worrying about is Muhammad Wilkerson on the defensive line.

So there you have it, a quick recap on the AFC East division teams. These teams are not especially talented, but in the game of football anything can happen and they should not be taken lightly.

Young Gun: Xander Bogaerts gets the call to The Show

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

Lost amongst the fireworks and ensuing media storm of last night’s game against the Yankees, the Red Sox called up their most highly touted prospect since Hanley Ramirez: Xander Bogaerts. This move has been a long time coming, with some people even calling for the promotion in June while incumbent shortstop Stephen Drew was slumping. The Bogaerts move is certainly exciting, but there are some tough questions that need to be answered.

The first question is where he will play. Obviously the correct move is shortstop, his natural position. However, Drew has picked up his play the past couple of weeks so it makes the switch a little tougher to decide. The next logical decision would be to slot him at third base, which I wholeheartedly disagree with. Bogaerts deserves to be at shortstop where he is comfortable. The pressure on him to perform is already high enough given all the hype he has produced, we don’t need him worrying to adapt to a new position in his first couple games in the MLB. So if Bogaerts can’t play third, the next logical step would be to just platoon Will Middlebrooks and Drew at the corner. Well, that’s wrong too. Drew has played every single game at shortstop in his major league career save for one, when he started at DH. Speaking of DH, there are whispers that the Red Sox might move to David Ortiz to first base for Bogaerts to take command of the DH role. Again, I disagree. Ortiz is playing out of his mind for 37 years old (while Red Sox fans look the other way) and I don’t want him wasting energy at first base and risking a useless injury. So I think the Red Sox should eat the rest of Drew’s $10 million contract this season (I didn’t like the signing, but Drew played better than I thought he would) and ride or die with their young guns. Middlebrooks went 2-3 for last night, and you just have to hope he gets back some of the potential he showed the previous year and make people buy all those t-shirt jerseys.

Second, what can we reasonably expect from him? Well, this is where the unfortunate part comes in. Bogaerts was called for for so long and was hyped too much for people to appreciate whatever he ends up doing. Even for me, I think it will be hard to be subjective when you hear all these great things he’s been doing in the minors. The only time the Red Sox has called up a prospect this young was in 1972, and that was Dwight Evans so I think that turned out pretty well. Despite the overall performance that he will produce this season; it’s a good sign he excels against lefties (.298/.452/.474 splits in the minors) something the Red Sox have been miserable at this year and is their Achilles heel if they make it into the postseason.

So where do we draw the line with Bogaerts? It’s tough to say. After all, he's the same age as me starting his first game in the thick of a pennant race on a team that desperately needs a spark. The Sox need to do everything in their power to keep him comfortable, meaning plugging him in at the bottom of the order and starting him at a position in which he feels comfortable. In terms of the numbers people expect him to put up, that’s a subjective question and fluctuates between people you talk to. In the long run, Bogaerts could be the latest prospect to exceed expectations by a mile; where names like Mike Trout and Manny Machado come to mind. I think that’s something to expect next season when he can relax in April in the first month of the season. This is August and soon will be September, and the bright lights will be shining down directly on his shoulders. The only thing I want him to do is put up numbers better than Stephen Drew and get acclimated in a contentious environment this season. Being 20 years old, he has all the time in the world. Here’s to the Xander Bogaerts era, for better or worse.