2013 New England Patriots Preview: The Keys to Lombardi: What the Patriots can do to achieve their ultimate goal

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

More often than not, a surprise team makes an unprecedented run to the Super Bowl and wins it all. The 2012-13 Baltimore Ravens, 2008-09 New York Giants, and (hey!) the 2002-03 New England Patriots come to mind as teams that defied the odds. Clichés (one that I have admittedly used before) are brought up with these teams – heart, grittiness, and a solid defense. Regardless of what you believe, there is one universally known fact that directly relates to post season success: a world class quarterback. Since 2000, only two teams have won without what I consider a top 5 quarterback (‘01 Ravens – Kyle Boller and ’03 Buccaneers – Brad Johnson. The jury is still out on Joe Flacco). Well, as you all know we have a world class quarterback who has been with our team since that Cinderella season of the ’01-’02 season. Just having a quarterback of that caliber gives us a pretty good chance of winning it all, because as long as he is healthy Tom Brady will punch our ticket into the playoffs. And once we are there…we’ve witnessed firsthand the pros and cons of the magic that is the NFL postseason.

Moving from blatantly obvious to…just as blatantly obvious is this: injury, or lack thereof, is also critical for obvious reasons. However, injuries in sports are unavoidable so it comes to two things: hopefully Lady Luck spares you an elite player; and when the injury happens, how does the team react? Luckily, the Patriots are incredibly good of finding stopgap players out of the woodwork that are capable of stepping into a situation and performing at a high level.

So right there in the introduction is the first couple Keys to Lombardi: a top tier playcaller and avoiding that pesky injury bug. After that, the keys tend to fluctuate depending on the team. So here we go for the New England Patriots:

Get off to a good start. The Patriots’ first four games are against the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Atlanta Falcons. Those teams (excluding the Jets who were 10th) finished in the bottom half of the league for DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in 2012. You don’t need to know all that mumbo jumbo, but you should know that that bodes well for the Pats, who can use some cupcake defenses early in the season to get acquainted with all the new faces on the offense.

Establish the running game. Last year, the Patriots had their first legit running game since the 2004-05 season with Corey Dillon when he rushed for 1,635 yards. I brought up in another piece how Stevan Ridley & co picked up some serious yardage against some below average defenses, but regardless, their committal to the running game last year was a promising sight and it’s critical they hit the ground running (AWFUL pun, I’m over it) so we won’t be so heavily relying on Brady as he grows older.

D-line generates a consistent pass rush. I’m not looking for them to put up stats such as sacks, TFLs, etc., I just want the defensive line and Brandon Spikes (let’s not consider him a blitzer because he should always be rushing the quarterback) to apply steady pressure on the quarterbacks they face and force them to check down to their running backs and maybe make decisions they don’t want to. Vince Wilfork and the oft mentioned on this site Chandler Jones should figure to lead the pack in backfield penetration. Also and more importantly, it would be a huge help to the secondary if they don’t have to work as hard covering receivers and worry about quarterbacks exploiting them as often if they are feeling rushed.

Linebackers improve in pass coverage. The formula to beat the Patriots is to get to Tom Brady early and often and focus your passing offense up the middle of the field. The linebackers of New England are pretty good, but few are exceptionally skilled at coverage. Dane Fletcher should look to contribute in that department, and young upstart Steve Beauharnais assuming he makes the team. If this team can adequately cover talented tight ends and defend running backs out of the backfield, they would be a finely tuned, well rounded defense.

Get gritty. Touched on in a previous piece, fans shouldn’t expect for the Pats to win their trademark 35-21 games of years past; at least in the beginning of the season. Although blowing out teams are nice, I always felt bittersweet because the regular season to New England should be a warm up for the playoffs. If they’re blowing teams out of the water, that doesn’t prepare you for the postseason where games are (typically) closer and harder fought. So if this team can get in some “bar fights” to take a page out of Kevin Garnett's bottomless book of quotes, it could ultimately be a positive in the long run even if it means them losing a couple.

Enter the playoffs on a roll. Quick problem I have that is related to this – people need to stop overreacting to Rob Gronkowski’s injury status, assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks. He can come back in Week 12 for all I care, the Patriots are a good enough team to not collapse like a house of cards without having their best playmaker besides Tommy Football. If Gronk can play with Brady for a couple weeks before the playoffs, combined with a soft last four games of the schedule (Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Ravens, Buffalo Bills); that could build some serious momentum going into the postseason.

So there you have it. The Patriots have the main ingredient for success in their quarterback, so think of these only as complimentary pieces to make the whole meal (wow, first the awful pun and then the awful analogy). Regardless of questionable literary devices used, I think I generated some fairly easy things for New England to improve on this season. Just because they seem easy, definitely do not underestimate how critical these are. If this team can step up and execute these pointers, we will be able to follow this team all the way until they lift the Lombardi trophy in New York at the end of the season.

2013 New England Patriots Preview: Know Thy Enemy - Breaking down the division opponents

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

The AFC East during the New England Patriots’ stretch of dominance has been somewhat of a joke, save for the New York Jets when they had one or two competent seasons and gave the Pats some trouble a couple years ago. Apart from some random games, New England almost always asserts their dominance against the teams in the division, propelling us to punch our tickets to the playoffs almost always earlier than any other teams in the league. However, this does give us an excuse to not regard them as competitors, and since we will be seeing the following three teams twice on the gridiron this season, let’s quickly break down each team so we can know what we are dealing with at the start of the season.

BUFFALO BILLS (2012: 6-10, 4^th place)

The Bills and Miami Dolphins are in a similar situation. First, obviously quarterback play more than any other position has the most influence in how a team does, and it’s the reason it’s tough to get a read on this team because they most likely will be starting a rookie under center in Week 1 (against the Patriots). Then again, if the Bills decide to start Kevin Kolb, this team is much easier to figure out: they’re going to suck.

For the other weapons on the offense, there are some people you should keep your eye on. The obvious one is CJ Spiller, who is an extremely dangerous running back now that the Bills are using him correctly. They also have Stevie Johnson, a perfectly serviceable number one wideout. And finally Scott Chandler; who isn’t an impressive tight end but seems to show up when he plays the Patriots, so he warrants at least a mention. However, if the Bills don’t have anyone to get these people the ball, then we needn’t worry people.

On the other side of the ball, this team is a little more miserable. Mario Williams, who signed the most lucrative contract ever for a defensive player, was an albatross for them last year in his first season with the team. Apparently, he was battling wrist issues all season so hopefully he doesn’t return to his normal havoc wreaking form that made the Bills want to sign him in the first place. After that, there’s really no one else that needs to be mentioned on their defense (besides Stephon Gilmore who had a nice rookie campaign at cornerback), so let’s go to the next team.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2012: 7-9, 2^nd place)

Like previously stated, the Miami Dolphins are in the same boat as the Bills: they have a young and unproven quarterback. Their offense lost two key players and only gained one. The losses were offensive lineman Jake Long and running back Reggie Bush, the former being a top tier pass protector and the latter being a dual threat playmaker. Their one addition was wideout Mike Wallace, a serious deep threat that compliments Brian Hartline, the Dolphins other dangerous wide receiver. Although I think Wallace is brutally overrated, he still needs to be accounted for when he is on the field.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins are even less impressive. The Brent Grimes signing was nice, he is a nice addition to their secondary. However, they let go of Sean Smith at cornerback so it is a wash. Also, their Dannell Ellerbe signing was good, albeit at a pretty hefty price. Baltimore Ravens defensive products that sign are pretty hit or miss, as the ghost of Adalius Thomas still haunts me and a huge number of Patriots fans to this day. The only other noteworthy defender on this team is Cameron Wake, a huge destructive force on the defensive line sure to give New England’s offensive line trouble in years to come.

NEW YORK JETS (2012: 6-10, 3^rd place)

Finally, last and definitely least. I’ll spare you the corny Jets jokes, because those have certainly been beat into the ground. The Jets quarterback situation is a mess, to put it mildly. They have two below average quarterback fighting to be the main signal caller, only to be rewarded with dreadful offensive weapons. Mark Sanchez’s favorite security blanket, Dustin Keller, went to the Dolphins but unfortunately tore his ACL this past Saturday and is out for the season. Santonio Holmes at this point of his career is at best a second or third wide receiver, but is the team’s number one receiver. The running backs aren’t anything to write home about either.

The once elite and stingy defense the Jets had in the recent years has turned into an old, slow defense that’s spotted with bad contracts. Darrelle Revis is gone, and whether or not you agree with the specifics of the trade, it’s nice the Patriots don’t have to play him twice a year (though they do play him in Week 3). Besides Antonto Cromartie who is a very respectable cornerback, the only other player on this defense you should be worrying about is Muhammad Wilkerson on the defensive line.

So there you have it, a quick recap on the AFC East division teams. These teams are not especially talented, but in the game of football anything can happen and they should not be taken lightly.

Fruitless Conclusions: Reading between the lines of the Buccaneers vs Patriots preseason game

By Mike Devarenne

Editor-in-chief

Okay people, ready to overreact to a meaningless preseason game? I certainly am, so let’s get right to it. I’ll spare everyone elongated breakdowns and instead just get right to the point with my observations and thoughts.

FIRST QUARTER

First drive of the game for the offense, and boy did it impress me:

·      Danny Amendola had 3 receptions, including a 26 yard touchdown catch. He already seems on the same page as Tom Brady, finding the soft spots in the field. Shane Vereen had 2 receptions, and lined up in various positions on the field.

·      Talking about snaps: Aaron Dobson only saw 1 snap, while Kenbrell Thompkins saw 14 (out of 15). That’s pretty telling. Jake Ballard saw 10 snaps, and I didn’t even notice him until someone mentioned it on Twitter. I’m beginning to dislike him more and more.

·      Zach Sudfeld is a huge target, catching a jump ball in the end zone on the 2-point conversion. Good hands, too (2^nd quarter catch was unreal)

·      The plays the Patriots ran were very simple but sometimes kept a frantic pace, and no one seemed too confused considering all the new faces.

First defensive possession:

·      It was a 3 & out, but the D did get a coverage sack (Brandon Spikes)

Second offensive possession:

·      Second and final drive for Brady. Only incompletion was a little miscommunication with Amendola. Besides that minor hiccup, their chemistry is legit and I’m becoming giddy.

·      Speaking of Amendola, his 5^th reception of the night came off a swing pass from Brady that was eerily reminiscent of Welker in past years.

·      LaGarrette Blount was the primary running back, and looked above average.

Second defensive possession:

·      2^nd coverage sack of the night, Chandler Jones gets the credit.

·      Another sack, this time Jones and Rob Ninkovich did the deed. If Jones can actually take a big step in his second year, he could be a borderline elite pass rusher just like I predicted in my defense preview.

Third offensive possession:

·      Ryan Mallett gets his shot to impress me. Let’s see where this goes.

·      Instantly has a bad throw. He looks very shaky. I’M TRYING TO LIKE YOU MALLETT.

Third defensive possession:

·      Great all around showing. Dont’a Hightower and Jones each had a tackle for loss. Like I said before, Hightower has the potential to be an above average linebacker, I really think he will become something special.

·      Ninkovich gets another sack to the end the Bucs’ drive. This is where overreactions take place – how good are our pass rushers or is Tampa Bay’s offensive line overmatched?

Quick tangent: Why in the world is Julian Edelman returning punts in a preseason game in the 2^nd quarter? He already has a spot on the team (most likely) so why are you putting him in danger?

Fourth offensive possession:

·      Mallett sails a football over a receiver’s head from 6 yards away, and then the next play rolls out in a naked bootleg and fires a pass to Vereen 12 yards down the field and hits him in stride. What the hell is going on?

·      After that throw, I definitely noticed it boosted Mallett’s confidence. He looked great the rest of the drive. Sell high on him Patriots!!

Fifth offensive possession:

·      Okay, I figured out Mallett: he overthinks a lot. When the Patriots allow him to sling it, he looks comfortable and plays with his instincts. Just like how they adapted the offensive for Tim Tebow, they should do the same with him. The small dink and dunk stuff that Brady excels at isn't playing to Mallett's strengths.

·      Like I said before, just ridiculous catch by Sudfeld from Mallett. Just as good was the throw.

·      Dobson looks good.

So that was the first half recapping meaningful plays with meaningful players. For the second half, I’ll strictly do bullet notes without labeling specific drives because I doubt I will know the majority of the players.

·      Tebow’s first series was a QB keep, then an off tackle run, and he capped it off with a disgusting throw into the ground. I think it was more of a miscommunication with the receiver, but it still was hideous.

·      Logan Ryan had a nice pick 6. Still really high on him.

·      Brandon Bolden is just now getting on the field. I have no idea why people want to keep him over Blount. If Bolden is seeing his first snaps in the third quarter, that’s bad news for him. Four RB’s had rushing attempts before him (Stevan Ridley, Blount, Vereen, and James Develin)

·      Has there even been faster fall from grace than Peyton Hillis? Well besides our tight end who moonlighted as a serial killer (allegedly).

·      I know the amount of heart and effort Tebow puts into the game. He doesn’t need to impress anyone by taking big hits from linebackers when he takes off running.

·      Moving into the 4^th quarter, I am lucky if I know a handful of players on the field. Regardless, the Patriots secondary playing right now will be in street clothes soon because this group of unknowns are miserable to watch.

·      I may have overrated Tavon Wilson. He looks a step slow and I would not be surprised in the least if Duron Harmon jumps over him on the depth chart.

·      Jamie Collins has been disruptive in the second half, as he should be. When he was getting first team reps he wasn’t as visible as I would’ve liked, but he is definitely tooling on the scrubs.

·      Tebow just threw a horrendous interception. I can’t defend you forever, Timothy.

So what can we gather from this game? The Brady-Amendola relationship looks legit, and Sudfeld (#Studfeld was the joke of the night on twitter) earned himself a spot on the team as a play maker. The offense ran basic plays but in interesting formations and sometimes at a hurried pace. The pass rush from the front 7 looked awesome, but that should be taken with a grain of salt. Admittedly, I think Tampa Bay represented tougher competition than Philadelphia last Friday. Although team scores mean zilch, there is still value in breaking down individual play on the gridiron. See you next week vs the Detroit Lions.

2013 New England Patriots Preview: Who will make the final cut of 53 on August 31st?

By Mike Devarenne
Editor-in-chief

            

As it stands, the New England Patriots roster stands at 90 members. Often speculated but rarely correct, analysts and casual fans alike try to figure out who should pack their bags and who they want to see suited up on game day. Well, here are my two cents on who should and should not be seeing the field September 8^th in Buffalo.

OFFENSE

Tim Tebow (QB) – Let’s get this over with. Tebow can stay. I don’t even mind him that much, it’s not his fault ESPN was infatuated with him when he was on the Broncos and Jets. I do not know the final plan with Tebow, and anyone who tries to tell you that they do is lying to your face. Alas, we have come full circle and back to speculation. What we do know: Josh McDaniels loves him, even using (read: wasting) the 25^th overall pick on him back with the Broncos. We also know that the Patriots intend to use him as a quarterback, which makes the whole “use him as an H-back/tight end” conversation range anywhere from mildly annoying to infuriating depending on the person’s intelligence level. So what I think: On the surface, it seems that the Patriots brought Tebow in as the heir successor to His Greatness Tom Brady (whether I agree with that, I’m leaning heavily towards not agreeing) and they were going to pimp Ryan Mallett for a high round draft pick, similar to what the Redskins are doing right now for Kirk Cousins. However, both Mallett and Tebow are 25 years old, so each would be 29 or 30 by the time their number is finally called assuming Brady retires after four or five more years. Although the age is the same, Tebow has one more year experience (four vs three) and a whole lot more actual game experience. Regardless, 29 or 30 is most certainly not the ideal age you want to start your quarterback of the future. I think the Tebow we see now is the Tebow we are going to have, meaning he probably will not make any more significant leaps of improvement. I’ve never been a fan of Mallett’s even though I have tried very hard. We just have to keep our fingers crossed he out performs in the rest of the preseason and we can pull the trigger and sell high on him. It only takes one team with terrible management to get this trade done so I am remaining optimistic.

Leon Washington (RB) - Give him the ax. This thought occurred to me during the first preseason game against Philadelphia in that he is basically useless. Not a lot of people are talking about him and I hope its not because they think he is guaranteed a roster spot. What he can bring to the table – pass catching out of the backfield and special teams - is easily replaceable by the younger and more explosive Shane Vereen. I liked the thought process for bringing him in primarily for kick returns, because Devin McCourty was painful to watch last year when he would run into the his blockers after a 15 yard head start. Washington could provide some nice veteran leadership to a young running back core but it is most definitely not worth a valuable roster spot.

Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount (RB) – I grouped these two together because they are essentially battling for the same roster spot. Stevan Ridley is our feature back, and Vereen is our Swiss army knife. That leaves a spot for one situational running back…or two, because I think we should keep both. If I had to pick one, I would keep Blount because he can do everything Bolden can do, except at about 30 lbs heavier. People are under the impression Blount is a big bruiser inside the tackles (which he is) but he’s very capable breaking it outside also, incase you haven’t seen the videos of him hurdling his defenders once he gets into open space (definitely check them out).

Josh Boyce, Aaron Dobson, and Kenbrell Thompkins (WR) – I also felt the trio of rookie wideouts should be grouped together. With roster cuts you never know, but I feel safe saying Dobson’s spot is secure, as it should be. Thompkins is a legit talent but his troubled past made every team pass on him in the draft. Surprise – the Pats picked him up and gave him a second chance. I’m reading good things out of camp from him, so the Patriots picked right. That leaves Boyce. A fifth round selection, I think he should be the odd man out. The Patriots need dynamic threats to stretch the field, and Boyce doesn’t fit that bill because he is a more physical wide receiver who worked best in short routes. With Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman guaranteed a spot, along with Matt Slater for his outstanding special teams, I don’t think Boyce makes the cut.

Jake Ballard (TE) – Too bad about Ballard, because I thought he was going to be a serviceable replacement when we don’t have Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The reports are that Ballard never fully recovered from his torn ACL and isn’t the player that the Patriots saw when they wanted to bring him in. But hey, at least we got Tom Coughlin’s cheeks to turn a shade of purple I’ve never seen when Belicheck claimed him off waivers a day after the Giants waived him.

Zach Sudfeld (TE) – SUDFELD!!! Ballard’s replacement essentially. Somehow he went undrafted, even though he is a huge target (6’7) and an above average blocker; important because we all know Lord Belicheck loves his versatility. If he ends up making the team, I can definitely see him becoming a fan favorite if he sees the field. He’s built like Gronk (6’7 255 vs 6’6 265) but with flowing locks of hair, and a great success story to boot. Fingers crossed.

Daniel Fells (TE) – I think him and Michael Hoomanawanui (affectionately known as Hooman from now on, thanks) make it, although when Gronk comes off PUP, I think Fells, like Boyce, is the odd man out.

DEFENSE

Armond Armstead (DE) – Eh. He’s been out all training camp thus far due to an infection, so it’s impossible to gauge his talent and what he can contribute. Another classic example of Belicheck thinking outside of the box, he was a stud at USC until he unfortunately suffered a heart attack. NFL teams were scared off, so Armstead played in the CFL before Belicheck decided to take a flyer on him.

Jermaine Cunningham/Jake Bequette (DE) – Cunningham should be on his way out. At best a rotational player, he hasn’t improved significantly enough in his three years to give the Patriots any reason to keep him. I believe the team should move on to Bequette, who showed some potential last year in limited time as a rookie, so look for him to try and impress the Patriots enough to convince them to get rid of Cunningham.

Justin Francis/Marcus Forston (DL) – Both should stay. The young guns (2^nd year and rookie, respectively) can come in on situational downs and will also not have immense pressure to perform, assuming Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly are contributing as they are expected to.

Jamie Collins (DE) – Obviously should stay and has been good so far in camp. Already discussed in Part II of my Patriots preview, even if he was disappointing you used a 2^nd round pick on him so they should at least see his rookie season through.

Steve Beauharnais (LB) – He should stay. A mild surprise, word from camp is that he is better than advertised as a coverage linebacker; something that could not possibly be more ideal, considering their linebackers trying to cover tight ends or running backs out of the backfield is vomit-inducing to watch. He definitely could be a worthy addition for use on passing downs.

Dane Fletcher (LB) – Again, previously covered in Part II of the preview, I say keep him to add more depth at the linebacker position and is a serviceable coverage linebacker.

Niko Koutouvides/Jeff Tarpinian (LB) – Essentially the same type of player, this situation falls into the WR problem in that there are only so many roster spots. Gun to my head, I am picking Koutouvides but I can see this going either way.

Marquice Cole (CB) – He’ll most likely stay even though I don’t agree with it. He is more of an insurance policy and will only have a spot because he can add depth to the cornerback position (Dennard situation pending).

Ras-I Dowling (CB) – Screw you. This might seem a tad pretentious; but at a certain point and to a certain degree, staying healthy is a skill. Is this the year Dowling stays healthy? Probably not. Will he make the team? Probably.

Nate Ebner (S) – Another nice story but might not have a happy ending. The only way this ex-Buckeye rugby player stays on the team is if he proves to be a viable player on special teams.

Duron Harmon (S) – The surprising draft pick this year has actually impressed, but let’s see if he lives up to his high draft status, considering most teams were figuring he would go undrafted. In Belicheck We Trust indeed.

Logan Ryan (CB) – A rookie cornerback that has given up his share of big plays at camp but is trying to learn a tough position for first year players, however he also has shown glimpses of real talent. He should stay.

Tavon Wilson (S) – The Harmon-esque pick of last year’s draft, (but not quite at the level of surprise Harmon brought this year) he had a strong start to the season last year, but then fell into some bad habits and finished more on the disappointing end for the second half of the season. Keep him, and see if he can regain some of the stuff he showed early on. If he doesn’t show improvement this season, don’t expect him to be back for 2014.

            So there you have it. My takes on the people who I view that are on the bubble as of right now. I may have left some people out that you think could be cut, and if that’s the case let me know.