By Mike Devarenne
Editor-in-chief
Part I – What to expect of the offense
There has been much talk (most of
it warranted) about what to expect from the offensive side of the ball for the
New England Patriots this season. Starting with the decision to lowball Welker
and lose him to arguably your toughest foe in the AFC was a puzzling one, and
adding to the mystery were reports of the Patriots agreeing to a deal with
Danny Amendola days before negotiations were started with Welker. Signing
another version of Welker then letting him go makes you question the Patriots’
motives in keeping him in the first place, but that’s another story for another
day. In short, my theory is that the Patriots are concerned with Welker’s age
(32) and durability (although a wash given Amendola’s history) and did not want
to resign a player that they would inevitably regret given the small window of
NFL careers and productivity. Not coincidentally, I feel very strongly that valuing
receivers are overrated and almost always depends on who is throwing them the
ball.
Following Amendola’s signing and
the letting go of Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead (a fan favorite in New
England but ultimately easy replaceable) the Patriots spared us the usual out
cry of confusing draft day tactics (sans the out-of-nowhere Duron Harmon pick)
by drafting two wide receivers: Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Dobson has the
brighter future of the two, he is a tall receiver who can hopefully give the
Patriots the vertical threat they have sorely missed since that magical 2007
season with Randy Moss. Boyce, a 5th round pick, is a short and
stocky wide receiver who is physical and could make adequate contributions given
where he was taken in the draft. Additionally, the Pats added undrafted free
agent Kenbrell Thompkins; a very talented athlete but also comes with some
serious baggage. Hopefully he can buy into the Patriot way (slightly
sarcastic). However, the Patriots haven’t had the best track record with
drafting wide receivers, where players like Chad Jackson and Brandon Tate are
still made fun of to this day. Although only the truly great rookie wide
receivers can grasp NFL offenses right away, (Julio Jones and A.J. Green most
recently come to mind) whether it is the offense or lack of coaching most
receivers who come in as rookies for the Patriots just do not make the cut.
Unfortunately, time is not a luxury this season and the newcomers will have to
adapt on the fly. If Dobson can add even a little vertical threat and make
defenses respect him, it can open up all kinds of space underneath, a place
where Amendola can thrive. Fortunately, the first preseason game showed some
promise, as all three rookies showed good chemistry with Tom Brady, but I don’t
think I need to mention how the preseason can be a fickle thing.
Now to the inevitable part of this
preview where I mention the Aaron Hernandez saga. A terrible tragedy that needs
not to be mentioned here, so with all due respect lets just view this loss from
a pure football standpoint.
The loss of Aaron Hernandez is a
big one, needless to say. While Rob Gronkowski got the stats and the fame,
Hernandez was what made this offense the highest scoring and number one offense
last year (when he was on the field). His versatility allowed Josh McDaniels to
really tinker around and make defenses sweat because they never knew what was
coming next. With Gronk out for the first six weeks at least and probably more,
the pressure will be on Brady more than ever to make things work whatever way
possible. McDaniels is going to have to go back to a more traditional offense
at least for the time being, but we all know the definition of “traditional”
for McDaniels is a little bit different than everyone else’s. Luckily, he has
the league’s 7th best rushing offense and a returning great
offensive line to fall back on, which we will cover shortly.
This might be seem painfully
obvious, but it is also painfully true: the first six weeks of the season for
the Patriots are critical. Although the Dolphins took a big step forward, the
division isn’t much to worry about, but the development of the new comers and
McDaniels tinkering with the offense at the beginning might be a precursor to see
how things will shake out in the latter part of the season. Luckily, they can
figure things out while playing four of their six games against teams that
ranked in the bottom fourth of the league in total defense last year (Tampa
Bay, Atlanta, Buffalo, and New Orleans).
We’ve already covered the passing
game at length, so it’s now time to dive into the running game. Although not as
drama filled and talked about as the passing game (with good reason) one could
make the argument that the running game is the more important aspect this year.
Everyone knows what a good running game does, and it does not need to be
discussed here. Although the Patriots were the 7th best running team
last year, it has been brought up a lot that a lot of their stats were piled up
against creampuff teams in the rush defense department. Even so, the Patriots
should have enough confidence built up that they know they can run on any
defense, and whether they can is a fact that remains to be seen. Stevan Ridley
is going into his third year, and although he is a very serviceable running
back, it is critical he takes the next step. He shows flashes of being an above
average back with his vision and ability to get tough yards on a continuing
basis. If LeGarrette Blount ends up making the team, they could offer up a
bruising 1-2 combination, with Shane Vereen utilizing his dynamic speed and
utility as a nice change of pace.
For all intents and purposes, the
Patriots are making the playoffs this year. I don’t mean to sound cocky, but
they are essentially a mortal lock barring a devastating injury or freak
occurrence. I spotlighted the façade of an overrated running game, and a lot of
departures and question marks in the passing attack. The truth is, we still
have Tom Brady and we still have Bill Belicheck, and that right there is almost
always going to be enough to guarantee us a chance at another Lombardi Trophy. Although
I plan to make a ‘Keys to Lombardi’ feature soon, I outlined a basic plan that
the Patriots need to get the ball rolling early so they can be firing on all
cylinders by the time Gronk comes back. As we have seen in recent years all you
need is a spot at the table and you have a chance to lift the trophy at the end
of the year (the Ravens needed a miraculous Ray Rice catch on 4th
and 29 in week 13 to even make the playoffs last year).
The points I made about the offense
in question were all legitimate, but ultimately TB12 and Lord Belicheck will
give us another chance to see them get another championship.
No comments:
Post a Comment