Rebuilding the Celtics: It may take longer than you would like

By Rich Csaplar
Contributor

In the words of Jay-Z: "What you are about to witness is my thoughts."  I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about my beloved Celtics going through a rebuilding process and one thing that I know for sure is that you don’t need to suck to rebuild, as we have seen it time and again.  We saw the Pistons do it in the early 2000s, the Mavericks do it recently and the Celtics do it just a few years ago, just to name a few (I can keep going if you really want).  We also know that landing a star doesn’t guarantee a Larry O’Brien Trophy: the last number 1 pick to win a championship with the team that selected him?  Tim Duncan (1997), and the one before that?  David Robinson (1987) with the same Spurs teams.  That being said I am not okay with making moves strictly so that the Celtics will be “Riggin’ for Wiggins.”  So what is the alternative?  Let’s take a closer look at how the Celtics accomplished this task last time around.

Danny Ainge took over the Celtics on May 9, 2003, which gives us exactly 4 years and 51 days before Ainge acquired Ray Allen and Celtic history changed forever.  For the sake of space I won’t go into every move and I’ll try and keep my thoughts to a minimum, but I digress:

June 26, 2003: Ainge trades the 16^th (Troy Bell) and 20^th (Dahntay Jones) picks to Memphis for the 13^th (Marcus Banks) and ­­­­­27^th (Kendrick Perkins) picks.

Ainge wastes no time collecting assets that would help the 2008 Celtics win by drafting Kendrick Perkins, the same Kendrick Perkins who Sam Presti won’t amnesty and would rather pay $17 million for the next two years to average 4 points. “But he’s so good at guarding Dwight Howard!”

July 19, 2003: Ainge resigns Walter McCarty

Is this just an excuse to watch an “I love Walter” video? You bet it is

October 20, 2003: Ainge trades Antoine Walker and Tony Delk for Chris Mills (traded 4 months later), Jiri Welsch, Raef LaFrentz (and his God awful contract) and a 2004 1st round pick (Delonte West).

Probably didn’t end up the way that Ainge wanted it too, but it’s important because it shows that he is not afraid to shake things up (as we found out recently).  It is also another move that collects assets that help down the road (West was part of the Ray Allen trade).  Seriously though, Mark Cuban gave Raef LaFrentz a 7 year $70 million contract; NBA free agency ladies and gentleman.

December 15, 2003: Ainge sends Eric Williams, Tony Battie and Kendrick Brown to the Cavs for Ricky Davis, Chris Mihm and Michael Stewart

            What’s a good way to sum up Ricky Davis’ time with the Celtics?  This might do.

Celtics finish 36-46, 8^th seed, swept by Pistons in first round

June 24, 2004: Ainge selects Al Jefferson (15th), Delonte West (24th) and Tony Allen (25th, acquired in irrelevant trade with Pistons on February 19th) in the first round of the 2004 draft

Great draft.  The Celtics land a player who becomes the corner stone of the Garnett trade and grab one of the best “one-way” players we’ve ever seen in Trick-or-Treat Allen.

February 24, 2005: Ainge brings Antoine Walker back and ships Tom Gugliotta, Gary Payton and Michael Stewart to Atlanta as well as sending Jiri Welsch to Cleveland

Ainge brings back a longtime Celtic and his $14.6 million expiring contract.  Walker takes his talents to South Beach in the offseason.

Celtics finish 45-37, 3^rd seed, lose to the Pacers in 7 games

June 28, 2005: Ainge selects Gerald Green (18^th) and Ryan Gomes (50^th) in the 2005 NBA Draft

            Another good draft.  Not exactly a home run with Green but both these players were involved in the Garnett blockbuster a few years later.  But hey, we’ll always have the dunk contest.

January 26, 2006: Ainge sends Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Justin Reed and Marcus Banks to the Timberwolves in exchange for Dwayne Jones, Mickael Olowokandi, Wally Szczerbiak and a future 1st round pick

The two pieces that matter in this deal are Wally Szczerbiak, who was part of the Allen deal, and the protected 1^st rounder which is eventually sent back to Minnesota in the Garnett deal.  We also sent a second round pick to the Wolves and they selected Nikola Peković, I’ll get into the value of second round picks briefly at the end of this post.

Celtics finish 33-49, miss the playoffs

June 26, 2006: This gets a little complex so bear with me.

1.     Celtics acquire the rights to Rajon Rondo and Brian Grant in exchange for a 2007 1^st round pick (Rudy Fernandez) they got from Cleveland in a February 24, 2006 trade involving Jiri Welsch

2.     Celtics draft Randy Foye 7^th overall and immediately trade him to Portland along with Raef LaFrentz (still on that hideous contract), Dan Dickau and cash for Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and a second round pick

3.     Celtics acquire the rights to Leon Powe in exchange for a future second round pick (Aaron Gray).

            A couple things here, obviously the Celtics got Rondo as well as Leon Powe.  They also landed Coney Island’s own Sebastian Telfair who is former Celtic great Stephan Marbury’s cousin, and Theo Ratliff, who are two more players involved in the Garnett trade.  The 2006 draft wasn’t great, it produced only 3 All Stars, but the Celtics got one of them, it also shows Danny Ainge’s reluctance to actually select a player when he has a pick inside the top ten.

Celtics finish 24-58, second worst record in the NBA

May 22, 2007: Celtics ping pong balls don’t fall correctly and they end up with the 5^th pick and my 16 year old’s crushed soul. However, the misfortune may have saved us from a lifetime of Greg Oden knee nightmares

June 28, 2007: Ainge sends Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the 5^th pick (Jeff Green) to Seattle (R.I.P.) for Ray Allen and the 35^th pick (Glen Davis)

So obviously this is a huge trade that the Celtics more or less “win.”  It gives Ainge a future hall of famer in Allen, but it also enables the Garnett trade to happen (he previously wouldn't waive his no-trade clause).  It is also the second draft in a row that Ainge trades a top 10 pick.

July 31, 2007: Celtics send Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, their 2009 1^st round pick (Wayne Ellington) and Minnesota’s 2009 1^st round pick (Jonny Flynn) which was acquired in a January 2006 trade

            I don’t need to tell you why this is important

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So what have we learned here?  The two biggest things that I take away from Danny’s last rebuilding process: 1) Danny wants to collect assets, not necessarily top draft choices and 2) Danny realizes that a top choice does not guarantee success and is not afraid to trade these picks.

What does this mean for the Celtics going forward?  Well it means that it may take a few years and that it is extremely unlikely that Ainge is gunning for Andrew Wiggins.  It’s going to mean collecting different types of assets, some picks, some players and some good contracts.  We saw him make a deal that gave the Celtics all three of these with Brooklyn already and we should expect some more moves before February’s trade deadline.

While this is a good blueprint for how Ainge may approach rebuilding the current Celtics, there is one major difference between the two: the new collective bargaining agreement.  I’m not going to bore you to tears about the intricacies of what changed but I will say a few things:

1.     First round picks are more valuable, don’t take my word for it, let Grantland’s Zach Lowe explain 

2.     Second round picks are also increasing in value as is the way that teams are structuring these contracts and “hitting” a second round pick is extremely valuable, Zach… 

3.     The new luxury tax system is making it more painful to be over the cap, we saw the Thunder inexplicably give up James Harden for this reason as well as the Grizzlies shipping overrated forward Rudy Gay to Toronto.  So while I would love to have Wyc reach into his pocket and buy a contending team, that won’t happen.  The Celtics are likely to see the loaded 2014 free agent class come and go unless they can convince some team to take Gerald Wallace’s corpse and his 3 year $30 million contract.

4.     For more information of the new CBA and any salary cap related questions, I strongly encourage you to read Larry Coon

This post wouldn't be possible without realgm.com or hoopsworld.com, both of which are fantastic resources.

I’d appreciate any comments.